Beating the NFL Vegas Odds: Jets vs. Falcons October 7th

Bilal Powell JetsNew York Jets @ Atlanta Falcons Picks
Monday, October 7th, 8:40 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Free NFL Pick: Under 44 @ Carbon Sportsbook

The Falcons have played three straight ‘over’ games this year, and I just don’t buy that that trend is going to continue. The Jets still have one of the best defenses in the game, and if they can avoid turning the ball over too many times against this Atlanta defense, the score should be kept incredibly low in the game.

There are just a ton of matchups that I love in this game. I’ll start with the Atlanta rushing game. All together now: What rushing game?!?! The Falcons only carried the ball six times in the whole first half against the New England Patriots last week, and they clearly aren’t even going to bother against a much better front seven that is allowing teams to average just 3.0 yards per carry thus far on the season. I also love the matchup that the New York offense has in this spot to at least keep doing what it is going to do. The Falcons haven’t been opportunistic this year, as they are averaging less than two sacks and right at one turnover per game, and that isn’t going to force QB Geno Smith into a lot of those situations where he can create points for the defense as he did last week time and time again versus the Tennessee Titans. The end result? There could be lots of booing at the Georgia Dome. I don’t trust Smith enough quite yet to want to play the Jets and the points, but I definitely have a lot of confidence that they are going to be holding Atlanta in the low-20s, which should at least keep this game under the number. Play the Under 44

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About the author: Ryan Andrews

 

Ryan D. Andrews is a long time sports writer and has been working as a freelance columnist for almost 15 years. He's worked along side some of the smartest and best writers in the business. He is always looking for the most profitable trends and is constantly looking for an edge. He uses his education and experience in math to his advantage in an effort to beat the books.

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