Free Week 9 Sunday Night Football Picks: Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans

2013 Free Week 9 Sunday NFL Picks
Indianapolis Colts (5-2) @ Houston Texans (2-5)
Date: Sunday,  11/3/2013 – Time: 8:30pm EST – Network: NBC
Colts @ Texans Odds: Indianapolis (Over/Under: 43) @ JustBet

Thursday NFL analysis: Two AFC South teams heading in opposite directions meet at Reliant Stadium in Houston as the 5-2 division leader Indianapolis Colts battle the 2-5 Houston Texans.

Indianapolis and the success of Andrew Luck has been one of the bigger stories this season. They’ve had some big wins this season. They’ve gone on the road and won at San Francisco, they’ve beaten Seattle at home, and they’ve beaten Denver at home. Their two losses on the year were on the road at San Diego, and at home to Miami. The win against San Francisco was impressive, however, San Francisco was coming off a loss at Seattle. We all know that teams that play Seattle don’t perform well due to the physical nature of play that Seattle presents. The win against Seattle some call phony, as some say Seattle should have won as they outgained the Colts in yardage by a wide margin. Andrew Luck has absolutely taken a step forward this season. The second  year quarterback has a passer rating of 91.7 while completing 60% of his passes for 1574 yards. The defense is opportunistic as they rank 11th in the league in total defense, while forcing 13 turnovers. They are however, susceptible to the run, as this was shown against Seattle and San Diego.

It’s been a rough season for Houston. The Texans were thought to be a contender in the AFC, but ball security has doomed their season. They are one of the league leaders in the category no team in the NFL wants to be in, turnovers. When your take-away/give-away differential is -11, the outcome will be poor more often than not. Matt Schaub has been benched in favor of former University of Houston product Case Keenum, and Keenum’s first NFL start wasn’t too bad. Keenum was 15 for 25 for 271 yards and 1 touchdown, but more importantly, no interceptions. He did fumble once and was sacked 5 times. This performance was against one of the NFL’s best defense, and while playing in Arrowhead Stadium. That’s a tough task for any quarterback in his first start, and he did this without a running game that was crippled with injuries. The Texans took the league’s only undefeated team to the limit, losing 17-16. Houston might be giving up 27.7 points a game, but they do lead the league in total defense. If there is one thing about all of Houston’s games, and this is surprising, they have outgained their opponent in yardage in almost every game. The only game they haven’t outgained their opponent was in Kansas City. So like I said before, turnovers have doomed their season, and this team is indeed better than their record would indicate.

Both teams come in to this matchup off the bye week, and this might be a good thing for Houston, and bad for Indianapolis. The Colts went in to the bye week off a big win against Denver. They did however lose a big part of their offense that game as Reggie Wayne was lost for the season with a torn ACL. When a team goes into the bye week off a win, it can stop momentum. When teams go into the bye off a loss, it allows time for a team to regroup, and I do think that’s the scenario in this matchup. The loss of Reggie Wayne will hurt a lot as he was the go to guy for Andrew Luck. From what it looks like, Houston running back Ben Tate will be active, and Arian Foster will be a game time decision. I do think Houston is very capable of winning this game, as their backs are against the wall and are in a must win situation. In the trenches, I expect a maximum effort from JJ Watt and the defensive front and do expect them to get to Luck behind a patchwork offensive line. Houston can run the ball, and I expect them to do just that. With Luck’s first full game without Reggie Wayne and a hungry defensive front for Houston, I expect that to be a major factor and I see Houston getting the win here.

Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Free NFL Picks:  Houston +1.5 & Under 43.5
Indianapolis Colts vs Houston Texans Game Prediction: Texans 21 Indianapolis 20

 

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About the author: Chad Dawkins

 

Chad A. Dawkins is not only an avid sports betting blogger and writer, but he is also a truly dedicated sports handicapper. As a very passionate sports fanatic since childhood, he’s a spirited sports handicapper of the purest form. He not only picks winners by putting in hours of time on all sports; football, basketball, & baseball handicapping. Chad truely enjoys the daily capping grind. He utilizes his love of numbers, the basic betting trends and other raw data to draw up winners. His daily capping involves combining statistics, betting systems, and public perception. He then ties all of this information with his personal knowledge of the game; which is stemmed from his regular viewing habits. Dawkins uses all the tools available to him to practice different types of situational handicapping and to develop systems. Chad uses all of this to pick winners and find value where the sports betting public doesn’t see it. Recently, Dawkins has been contributing on several top websites. He’s been a long time (5+ year) member and often shares his insights on the Cappersinfo.com forums; whom we would like to thank for recommending Chad to Total Choice Sports Picks. He has a solid understanding of how the daily lines are set by the oddsmakers, what moves the line, influences the public; and just has a solid feel for the betting market in general. For all the said reason, this is a big reason why TC-Sports-Picks is honored to have him as a contribution and future expert.

 

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