2013-14 Free AFC Championship Pick: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

Date: Sunday, January 19th, 2014
Time: 3:00 pm EST on CBS
Game Line: Denver -4.5
Over/Under: 55
(Lines From WagerWeb – Get a HUGE 200% Bonus On This Page)
Sunday’s Free AFC Championship Picks Game Analysis: The two top seeds in the AFC will meet as the Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots for the AFC Championship. It will be the 15th time That Tom Brady and Peyton Manning meet in their careers, and the 4th time they’ve met in the playoffs, with Brady holding the edge with 2 playoff wins.

Denver punched their ticket to the Sunday’s championship game with a 24-17 victory over San Diego. The Broncos controlled the game throughout and held off a late rally by Philip Rivers. They suffered a major loss in the game however, as their top corner Chris Harris was lost for the rest of the postseason with a torn ACL. They still have veteran Champ Bailey, although he has been hampered with a foot injury for the majority of the season. Denver has won five out of their last six games, with their only loss coming in week 15 against the Chargers. Denver’s offense has many weapons for Peyton Manning to distribute the ball to. Wide Receivers Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker, Eric Decker, and tight end Julius Thomas can give defensive coordinators nightmares. They also have an established run game with Knowshon Moreno and rookie Montee Ball. The offensive line does a good job protecting Manning, as they’ve allowed only 20 sacks. The defense lost their best player in Von Miller at the end of the season, yet can still generate a good pass rush with Shaun Phillips (10 sacks) and Derek Wolfe (4 sacks).

New England advanced to the AFC championship with a 43-22 win over the Indianapolis Colts. With all of the injuries New England has dealt with this season, it’s amazing to some that the Patriots are in this position. On defense, they lost 2 parts of their interior defensive line with Tommy Kelly and Vince Wilfork. Pro Bowler Jerod Mayo and run stopper Brandon Spikes in the linebacking core are also gone. On offense they lost a starting left tackle in Sebastian Vollmer, and all pro tight end Rob Gronkowski. Their injured reserve list is quite the list of reputable players, yet the Patriots keep chugging along. Tom Brady’s job was pretty easy this past weekend. Their offense has now morphed into a run first offense behind running back LeGarrette Blount. Blount made his presence felt once again in the divisional round victory, with 166 yards and 4 touchdowns. Stevan Ridley also made his presence felt with 52 yards and 2 touchdowns. They of course can air it out, with Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Kenbrell Thompkins. The defense was able to get pressure against the Colts, and their secondary benefited as Alfonso Dennard had 2 interceptions. One x-factor for the Patriots defense is rookie Jamie Collins.  He’s a versatile linebacker that can rush the passer and play the pass very well.

This will be the second time these two teams have met this season, as Denver lost at New England in week 12 with New England coming out on top with a 34-31 overtime victory. I’m not going to put any stock in to that matchup as there has been a lot of changes since then. There’s no Rob Gronkowski, no Von Miller, and the wind in that game was a factor. Not only that, but Denver Coach John Fox was out recovering from heart surgery. Knowing how Patriots head coach Bill Belichick approaches a game of this magnitude, he will likely employ a very intricate game plan. They may let Denver run the ball like he did in the first matchup, he may not. There could be many scenarios that could play out, so what it comes down to what team plays better in crucial situations. We’ve seen it many of times that the team that has the record setting offense doesn’t fare well in the playoffs. When it comes to the playoffs, you have to be able to play sound defense, and be able to run the ball. I think New England holds the edge in those two categories as Denver’s defense is definitely a liability. New England’s defense is by no means world beaters, but they play good sound situational football, and are good when it comes to scheming. Denver sure does look like the better team, but right now, New England is peaking at the right time. I think they will have a gameplan to limit possessions for Peyton Manning. Belichick has had success against Manning in the past, and I think he has the players on defense to get the job done. New England advances to the Super Bowl.

New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Free NFL Pick: New England +4.5 Under 55
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos Game Prediction: New England 27 Denver 23


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About the author: Chad Dawkins


Chad A. Dawkins is not only an avid sports betting blogger and writer, but he is also a truly dedicated sports handicapper. As a very passionate sports fanatic since childhood, he’s a spirited sports handicapper of the purest form. He not only picks winners by putting in hours of time on all sports; football, basketball, & baseball handicapping. Chad truely enjoys the daily capping grind. He utilizes his love of numbers, the basic betting trends and other raw data to draw up winners. His daily capping involves combining statistics, betting systems, and public perception. He then ties all of this information with his personal knowledge of the game; which is stemmed from his regular viewing habits. Dawkins uses all the tools available to him to practice different types of situational handicapping and to develop systems. Chad uses all of this to pick winners and find value where the sports betting public doesn’t see it. Recently, Dawkins has been contributing on several top websites. He’s been a long time (5+ year) member and often shares his insights on the Cappersinfo.com forums; whom we would like to thank for recommending Chad to Total Choice Sports Picks. He has a solid understanding of how the daily lines are set by the oddsmakers, what moves the line, influences the public; and just has a solid feel for the betting market in general. For all the said reason, this is a big reason why TC-Sports-Picks is honored to have him as a contribution and future expert.


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