Free NFL Picks: Broncos vs. Colts Predictions October 20th

Peyton Manning BroncosSunday Night Football Pick: Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts 10/20: The master that helped build the Indianapolis Colts is returning. QB Peyton Manning and his new team, the Denver Broncos are out to teach the young guys a lesson on NBC’s Sunday Night Football this week, and we’re here to make our NFL picks for what should be one of the most emotional regular season games we have ever seen.

Not surprisingly, the perfect Broncos are favored by nearly a full touchdown in this one on the NFL odds. The ‘total’ is one of the highest of the season at 56, and as scary and as square as it sounds, we have to keep going towards the ‘over’ until Denver gets broken by such a high number.

NFL Week 7 – Broncos @ Colts October 20th, 2013
Game Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
Broncos vs. Colts On TV: NBC
NFL Betting Odds Courtesy of JustBet Sportsbook: Denver -6.5 (Total: 56)

JustBet

You’ve got to understand the magnitude of what the Broncos are doing here to really get an appreciation for just how high these ‘totals’ really should be. Denver has played six games, and it has gotten to at least 35 points in each of those games. All six games have gone ‘over’ the number, and most of those have gone well past the ‘total’. Here are the total points scored in the six Broncos games: 76, 64, 58, 72, 99, 54. That just plain dumb. But yes, the truth of the matter is that half of the games this year have reached at least 72 points. We don’t believe that the ‘totals’ should be quite that high, but we do think that the oddsmakers should be thinking about some 62s or so. That might seem epically high, but take Manning’s numbers through six games and prorate them out. How many quarterbacks do you know post 475 completions, complete 74% of their passes, throw for 5,800 yards with a 128.8 QB rating and a TD/INT ratio of 58/5? That’s what Manning is on pace for if he plays all 16 games.

What it’s going to take to keep the Broncos from getting past the ‘total’ in games is a sound defense that can get pressure on Manning and control the clock. Indy can do none of that. In fact, the Colts only had the ball for another 23 minutes last week against the Chargers, and they’re playing on a short week. We can’t imagine that Manning is going to come back to the dome at Lucas Oil Field where he is so comfortable throwing the ball around and have this be the game where he doesn’t score at least 35 points. The Colts will have no choice but to keep up, and even a 35-24 game would seem like a relatively low scorer by Denver standards. The oddsmakers should know that 59 points should be good enough for ‘under’ bettors, but at this point, it just flat out isn’t, and we have to keep taking advantage where we can.

Broncos @ Colts Free Pick for 10/20/13: Over 56

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