2014 Free Week 1 Sunday NFL Picks: Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos
Date: Sunday, September 7th, 2014 Time: 8:30 pm EST TV: NBC
Game Line: Denver -7.5 (from JustBet) Over/Under: 55

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Sunday NFL analysis: Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos host Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts on NBC’s Sunday Night Football.

The last time fans saw the Denver Broncos in a meaningful game, they lost in Super Bowl XLVIII in New York City to the Seattle Seahawks. Fast forward 7 months and after a number of offseason acquisitions, the Broncos look primed and ready for another Super Bowl run. They are led by none other than Peyton Manning, who shattered the record books last year passing for 55 touchdowns as Denver set a record for most points in a season. They did lose WR Eric Decker to free agency, but signed talented WR Emmanuel Sanders to fill the void. They still have the dynamic Demaryius Thomas and TE Julius Thomas as well. Oh, am I forgetting someone? No, but Wes Welker, he won’t be playing. Welker was suspended for 4 games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. Welker was one of Manning’s main targets last season, and while his presence will be missed, Andre Caldwell will be called upon in his absence. In the backfield carrying the majority of the load will be Montee Ball, as the departure of Knowshon Moreno clears the way for Ball being the feature back. On defense the Broncos were suspect at times last year, exit Champ Bailey, and enter Aqib Talib, one of the more talented corners in the league. They also bolstered their front four with the addition of Demarcus Ware, who most certainly will take attention off of pass rush specialist Von Miller.

The Indianapolis Colts were looked at as having a ‘win now’ attitude when they made an early season trade for running back Trent Richardson last year. They did make the playoffs last year, but it most certainly wasn’t because of Richardson. Quarterback Andrew Luck brought Colts fans a glimpse of what’s in store for the future as he led the Colts to an AFC wildcard win over Kansas City coming back from a 28 point deficit. Wide receiver Reggie Wayne is back after going down last season with a torn ACL, and to compliment him there’s the speedy wideout T.Y. Hilton, the third year Florida International product. They Colts added another wide receiver to the mix as well, signing veteran Hakeem Nicks in the offseason. If Nicks can play at the level that he did in New York, it could prove to be a brilliant signing. His skills were never questioned, but it’s whether or not he can stay healthy. On defense, the Colts will be without OLB and dynamic pass rusher Robert Mathis, who was suspended 4 games for violating the league’s substance abuse policy. That will be a big loss for a defense that was for the most part average for a better part of the season.

I do think the Colts are one of the better teams in the AFC, but they’re not one of the elite. Last year, Andrew Luck and company spoiled Peyton Manning’s homecoming in Indianapolis, defeating the Broncos 39-33 in a Sunday night game. Now in the NFL, the whole revenge factor can be a tad overrated, but rest assured, Manning doesn’t like losing. Not only does he not like losing, but losing in the fashion that he did in his return to Indianapolis I’m sure gets under his skin just a bit. And how about the last time he was on national TV in the Super Bowl, do you think he and the Broncos were a tad embarrassed? The bottom line is that without a pass rush, the Colts don’t stand a chance in this game. Yes, Wes Welker will be missed, but Indianapolis doesn’t have the defense to matchup with Denver’s weapons. And when the Colts have the ball, an over-the-hill Champ Bailey won’t be there, it will be Aqib Talib instead. Denver was the better team last year, forget the loss, it was an anomaly. Denver has upgraded their front four and secondary, including the addition of safety TJ Ward. Manning isn’t losing in Denver on national TV to the guy that replaced him in Indianapolis; it’s just not going to happen. Denver wins in convincing fashion on Sunday night.

Free Week 1 Sunday NFL Pick: Denver -7.5, Over 55
Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos Score Prediction: Denver 41 – Indianapolis 24



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About the author: Chad Dawkins


Chad A. Dawkins is not only an avid sports betting blogger and writer, but he is also a truly dedicated sports handicapper. As a very passionate sports fanatic since childhood, he’s a spirited sports handicapper of the purest form. He not only picks winners by putting in hours of time on all sports; football, basketball, & baseball handicapping. Chad truely enjoys the daily capping grind. He utilizes his love of numbers, the basic betting trends and other raw data to draw up winners. His daily capping involves combining statistics, betting systems, and public perception. He then ties all of this information with his personal knowledge of the game; which is stemmed from his regular viewing habits. Dawkins uses all the tools available to him to practice different types of situational handicapping and to develop systems. Chad uses all of this to pick winners and find value where the sports betting public doesn’t see it. Recently, Dawkins has been contributing on several top websites. He’s been a long time (5+ year) member and often shares his insights on the Cappersinfo.com forums; whom we would like to thank for recommending Chad to Total Choice Sports Picks. He has a solid understanding of how the daily lines are set by the oddsmakers, what moves the line, influences the public; and just has a solid feel for the betting market in general. For all the said reason, this is a big reason why TC-Sports-Picks is honored to have him as a contribution and future expert.


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