2013 Free Week 15 Sunday NFL Picks: Patriots @ Dolphins

New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Date and Time: Sunday, December 15th, 2013, 1:00 pm on CBS
Game Line: Miami pick (from JustBet)
Over/Under: 45.5
Sunday NFL analysis: The New England Patriots will attempt to clinch the AFC East when they head down to South Beach to take on the Miami Dolphins.dolphins-patriots

The Miami Dolphins have overcome a mid-season controversy and are now challenging for an AFC playoff spot. ‘Bullygate’ as some called it, was dominating the headlines for weeks, yet the team has persevered and have won three out of their last four games. They are coming off a big win in Pittsburgh scoring a season high 34 points despite the snowy conditions. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill has done an admirable job despite being sacked a league high 47 times this season. Tannehill has completed 62% of his passes for 3315 yards with 20 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. They haven’t had too much success running the ball, averaging only 95 yards per game this year. They have however gotten the running game going as of late, getting 125 yards on the ground against the New York Jets, and gashing the Steelers for 181 yards. They have some quality receivers in Brian Hartline (67 rec 855 yds) and speedster Mike Wallace (58 rec 762 yds), but one of Tannehill’s favorites in the red zone is tight end Charles Clay, who can create mismatches in the secondary. Clay leads the team in touchdown receptions with 6, and has and averages 11.3 yards per reception. Defensively the Dolphins are respectable. They are 13th in the league in passing yards allowed (229.8 ypg), and 23rd in the league in rushing (118.8 ypg). They do feature a fierce pass rush that has tallied 40 sacks on the year, led by defensive ends Olivier Vernon (11.5) and Cameron Wake (7.5).

New England comes into Sunday’s matchup off another miracle win over Cleveland. The Patriots scored a touchdown with 1 minute remaining in the fourth quarter to cut the deficit to 5. They then recovered an onside kick, and then got gift of a pass interference call in the endzone to set up another score to win in 27-26. In the win, they did lose tight end Rob Gronkowski to an ACL injury, which was a big blow to what had been an improving offense. Tom Brady’s numbers this year are somewhat pedestrian compared to prior years, completing 60.8% of his passes for 3685 yards with 21 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. They have a crowded backfield full of contributors, and average 120 yards rushing per game. Shane Vereen’s return has helped as he is a great receiving option with his quickness. Stevan Ridley (661 yds 7 TD) leads the team in yards, yet ball security continues to be an issue. Legarette Blount (460 yds 3 TD) and Brandon Bolden (265 yds 3 TD) have also contributed. Their receiving core has come a long way, with the two rookies Aaron Dobson and Kenbrell Thompkins have improved. Julian Edelman leads the group with 76 receptions for 775 yards and 5 touchdowns. Danny Amendola (41 rec 448 yds) has missed some time due to injury, yet has filled in nicely and stayed healthy in  the past few weeks. The defense is opportunistic with 24 takeaways, yet struggle to stop the run, allowing 135.8 yards per game.

Up until Thursday night, The Patriots had a grasp on the #2 seed in the AFC. With the Broncos losing to San Diego, the Patriots can win out and take over the #1 seed. The Patriots have been hit with the injury bug hard this year, yet have been resilient, as the next man up philosophy has applied. Everyone in the media this week has counted the Patriots out, saying the Gronk injury will be too much to overcome. We’ve heard this song and dance before, and this is something the Patriots thrive on…adversity. New England played the first six games without Gronkowski, including a 30-27 win over New Orleans. Brady struggled with his new receivers early, but now the chemistry is there and they now have Vereen, who adds a whole other element to the offense. The Patriots haven’t been impressive in their last two outings, but they’ve won. This is due to good situational football, something Bill Belichick always emphasizes. The Dolphins have been playing well as of late, but there home field advantage is minimal. The Patriots can take over as the #1 seed, so the team will be motivated and focused. The Patriots have the better coach, the veteran leadership, and know how to win close games. I expect this all to come to fruition on Sunday with a Patriot victory.

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins Free NFL Picks: Patriots PK & Over 45.5
New England at Miami Final Score Prediction: Patriots 27 Dolphins 23


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About the author: Chad Dawkins


Chad A. Dawkins is not only an avid sports betting blogger and writer, but he is also a truly dedicated sports handicapper. As a very passionate sports fanatic since childhood, he’s a spirited sports handicapper of the purest form. He not only picks winners by putting in hours of time on all sports; football, basketball, & baseball handicapping. Chad truely enjoys the daily capping grind. He utilizes his love of numbers, the basic betting trends and other raw data to draw up winners. His daily capping involves combining statistics, betting systems, and public perception. He then ties all of this information with his personal knowledge of the game; which is stemmed from his regular viewing habits. Dawkins uses all the tools available to him to practice different types of situational handicapping and to develop systems. Chad uses all of this to pick winners and find value where the sports betting public doesn’t see it. Recently, Dawkins has been contributing on several top websites. He’s been a long time (5+ year) member and often shares his insights on the Cappersinfo.com forums; whom we would like to thank for recommending Chad to Total Choice Sports Picks. He has a solid understanding of how the daily lines are set by the oddsmakers, what moves the line, influences the public; and just has a solid feel for the betting market in general. For all the said reason, this is a big reason why TC-Sports-Picks is honored to have him as a contribution and future expert.


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