Week 12 Free NFL Football Picks For 11/24 – Indianapolis Colts at Arizona Cardinals

Date and Time: Sunday, November 24th, 2013, 4:25 pm on CBS
Game Line: Arizona -3 (from JustBet)
Over/Under: 45
Sunday NFL analysis:  The 7-3 Indianapolis Colts head to the desert to take on the 6-4 Arizona Cardinals.  

The Arizona Cardinals have quietly strung together three straight wins and are in the huntAndrew Luck Carson Palmer for a wildcard berth in the NFC. The offense has improved over recent weeks, as Carson Palmer is starting to grasp Bruce Arian’s offense. Last week, Palmer had his best game of the season completing 30 of 42 for 412 yards and 2 touchdowns. Michael Floyd also had a breakout game last week with 6 receptions for 193 yards and 1 touchdown. Floyd has emerged as a legitimate target opposite Larry Fitzgerald to form one of the more formidable wide receiver tandems in the league. The Cardinals may have found a diamond in the rough in sixth round draft pick Andre Ellington. The explosive Ellington averages 6.2 yards per carry and is also a threat in the receiving game with 26 receptions for 226 yards. Arizona’s defense has been playing at a high level ranking seventh in the league in total defense while forcing 22 turnovers and registering 26 sacks. Arizona is stout against the run, allowing only 81.4 yards per game, ranking second in the league.

The Colts might be 7-3, but the offense been inconsistent as of late with slow first half starts. They had to come back from an 18 point deficit against Houston, were blown out by St. Louis, and were flat in the first half against Tennessee. When against the blitz, Andrew Luck’s completion percentage is only 36%, which shows that he is missing the guy that was his main target in Reggie Wayne. T.Y. Hilton has stepped up in Wayne’s absence, and has taken the role as Luck’s go-to guy with 707 yards receiving this year. While Trent Richardson has been a bust, Donald Brown has come on as of late averaging 5.9 yards per carry. After a disappointing rookie campaign, tight end Coby Fleenor has emerged as one of Andrew Luck’s more reliable targets. Fleenor is coming off his best effort of the season with 107 yards receiving against Tennessee. Defensively the Colts are ranked twenty first overall (365 ypg), and have struggled to stop the run, allowing 126.1 yards on the ground per contest.

In this matchup, Arizona coach Bruce Arians goes against his former team that he coached in Chuck Pagano’s absence last year going 9-3 as the interim head coach. This is a big advantage for the Cardinals, as Arians knows Andrew Luck’s tendencies. You might see that during that the three teams Arizona has beaten during their streak are a combined 5-18, yet they have won those contests by an average of 10 points. Indianapolis cannot afford a slow start, as Arizona’s defense is one of the better units in the league. I would expect all-pro cornerback Patrick Peterson to be on T.Y. Hilton for the majority of the game, and seeing how Arizona is tough against the run; the Colts are really up against it this weekend. The Cardinals offense is improving week by week, and from a matchup standpoint, the Colts secondary does not have the personnel to match up with Fitzgerald and Floyd. The Cardinals are 4-1 at home this year, with wins against quality opposition in Detroit and Carolina. I expect the Arizona defense to pressure Luck and force a turnover or two to get the win in Glendale.

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Indianapolis Colts vs. Arizona Cardinals Free NFL Pick: Arizona -3 Over 45
Indianapolis Colts vs. Arizona Cardinals Game Prediction: Arizona 27 Indianapolis 21

 

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About the author: Chad Dawkins

 

Chad A. Dawkins is not only an avid sports betting blogger and writer, but he is also a truly dedicated sports handicapper. As a very passionate sports fanatic since childhood, he’s a spirited sports handicapper of the purest form. He not only picks winners by putting in hours of time on all sports; football, basketball, & baseball handicapping. Chad truely enjoys the daily capping grind. He utilizes his love of numbers, the basic betting trends and other raw data to draw up winners. His daily capping involves combining statistics, betting systems, and public perception. He then ties all of this information with his personal knowledge of the game; which is stemmed from his regular viewing habits. Dawkins uses all the tools available to him to practice different types of situational handicapping and to develop systems. Chad uses all of this to pick winners and find value where the sports betting public doesn’t see it. Recently, Dawkins has been contributing on several top websites. He’s been a long time (5+ year) member and often shares his insights on the Cappersinfo.com forums; whom we would like to thank for recommending Chad to Total Choice Sports Picks. He has a solid understanding of how the daily lines are set by the oddsmakers, what moves the line, influences the public; and just has a solid feel for the betting market in general. For all the said reason, this is a big reason why TC-Sports-Picks is honored to have him as a contribution and future expert.

 

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