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2013 Free Week 11 Monday NFL Picks: Patriots at Panthers | Total Choice Sports Picks

2013 Free Week 11 Monday NFL Picks: New England Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers

Date and Time: Monday, November 18th, 2013, 8:30 pm on ESPN
Game Line: Carolina -3 (from JustBet)
Over/Under: 47
Monday NFL analysis: In what could be one of the more competitive matchups on Monday night football this year, the 6–3 Carolina Panthers host the 7–2 New England Patriots.

The off-season was a tumultuous one for New England, however head coach Bill Belichick has foundPatriots vs Panthers the personnel to do the job and the team has hit the ground running. The Patriots aren’t blowing teams out like they have in prior seasons; they are instead playing good sound situational football. Tom Brady’s stats are somewhat pedestrian compared to years past, completing 57% of his passes for 2256 yards, with 13 touchdowns and six interceptions. Brady has needed time to develop chemistry with his new wide receivers, yet the new receivers have stepped up and are progressing week by week. Rookie Aaron Dobson had drop issues early on in the season, yet has come on as of late with 454 yards and 4 touchdowns. Tight end Rob Gronkowski returned from injury a few weeks back and the offense has flourished since, including a 55 point outburst against Pittsburgh before going into the bye week. New England is deep at the running pack position with Steven Ridley, LeGarrette Blount, and Brandon Bolden. Together they average 129.1 yards per game on the ground. The defense has been respectable, but has been hit with the injury bug with the loss of Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo to season ending injuries. The secondary has been weakened as of late, with a hip injury to Aqib Talib, who has been a tremendous difference maker with 4 interceptions. Talib is currently questionable for Monday night’s contest. The Patriot defense can get after the quarterback, registering 26 sacks on the season, ranking fourth in the league.

Carolina heads in to Monday night coming off one of the biggest wins in recent history for the franchise, getting a huge road win at San Francisco. The Panthers are currently in the midst of a five game win streak. During the streak, the defense has been the main story, allowing only 268.8 yards per contest. The Panthers defense is led by linebacker Luke Kuechly, who made his presence felt last week with an 11 tackle, 1 sack performance. The defensive line for Carolina is very disruptive, led by Greg Hardy and Charles Johnson, who have combined for 13.5 sacks on the year. Cam Newton isn’t having the best statistical year, but he’s leading a balanced efficient offense, that is averaging 328 yards per game and scoring 23.8 points per game. The offense has only only 13 turnovers on the year, and with an opportunistic defense they have a team turnover differential of +8.

Carolina has to be riding high after the big win, but this will be their toughest test to date as New England is extremely well balanced on offense. I would expect the Patriots offense to come out at a very fast pace and try to tire out the defense of Carolina. If the last Patriots game is any indication of how their offense is improving, the Panthers might be in for a long night. If the Panthers defensive line can get pressure on Brady, they definitely have a chance. Another disadvantage is that New England has had two weeks to prepare. In games after the bye, Bill Belichick is 10-3 with New England. New England’s main plan defensively, will be to take away what the Panthers do best, which is running the ball. Belichick has had success in the past against mobile quarterbacks, so I would expect him employ a spy on Cam Newton. A big win like the Panthers team often calls for a letdown, so Monday nights test will be a good gauge on the teams maturity and how their handling success. Success is something that Tom Brady has had a lot of on Monday nights, going 13-4 contests. Given the time that Belichick has had to prepare for Carolina, it seems that Carolina won’t be able to keep up offensively with a Patriot team that is starting to hit their stride.

New England Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers Free NFL Pick: Patriots +3 Over 47
New England Patriots vs. Carolina Panthers Game Prediction: Patriots 31 Panthers 17


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About the author: Chad Dawkins


Chad A. Dawkins is not only an avid sports betting blogger and writer, but he is also a truly dedicated sports handicapper. As a very passionate sports fanatic since childhood, he’s a spirited sports handicapper of the purest form. He not only picks winners by putting in hours of time on all sports; football, basketball, & baseball handicapping. Chad truely enjoys the daily capping grind. He utilizes his love of numbers, the basic betting trends and other raw data to draw up winners. His daily capping involves combining statistics, betting systems, and public perception. He then ties all of this information with his personal knowledge of the game; which is stemmed from his regular viewing habits. Dawkins uses all the tools available to him to practice different types of situational handicapping and to develop systems. Chad uses all of this to pick winners and find value where the sports betting public doesn’t see it. Recently, Dawkins has been contributing on several top websites. He’s been a long time (5+ year) member and often shares his insights on the forums; whom we would like to thank for recommending Chad to Total Choice Sports Picks. He has a solid understanding of how the daily lines are set by the oddsmakers, what moves the line, influences the public; and just has a solid feel for the betting market in general. For all the said reason, this is a big reason why TC-Sports-Picks is honored to have him as a contribution and future expert.


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