2013 Free Week 12 Sunday NFL Picks: Denver Broncos at New England Patriots

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Date: Sunday, November 24th, 2013
Time: 8:30 pm EST on NBC

Game Line: Denver -2.5 (from 5 Dimes Sportsbook)
Over/Under: 53  (from 5 Dimes Sportsbook)

Sunday NFL analysis: It’s the 14th installment in the Brady vs. Manning Saga as the 9-1 Denver Broncos take on the 7-3 Peyton Manning Tom BradyNew England Patriots on Sunday Night Football.

The Denver Broncos will be playing on Sunday night for the second straight week. The Broncos are coming off a 27-17 win over Kansas City. Their lone loss on the year was against Indianapolis, 39-33 in week 7. This year Peyton Manning is on pace to take back his single season touchdown record from, yep you guessed it, Tom Brady. Manning has completed 69.9% of his passes for 3572 yards with 34 touchdowns and only 6 interceptions. Manning spreads the ball around as there are three, possibly four receivers that could break 1000 yards this year. Demaryius Thomas leads the receiving core in yardage with 990, and former New England Patriot Wes Welker leads the team in receptions with 61. Eric Decker and tight end Julius Thomas are also threats that can give defensive coordinators nightmares. Running back Knowshon Moreno has definitely taken a step forward this year, with 600 yards on the ground averaging 4 yards a carry with 8 touchdowns. Moreno is also a threat in the passing game with 336 receiving yards and 1 touchdown reception. On the injury front, Wes Welker passed his concussion test this week and will be a go. Tight end Julius Thomas remains questionable with a knee injury suffered last week.

Denver’s defense is average, yet has gotten a boost since linebacker Von Miller returned to the team from suspension. Denver allows 371.8 yards per game, registering 29 sacks and 17 takeaways. The Broncos surprisingly have a -2 turnover differential, as the offense has turned the ball over 19 times (13 fumbles lost, 6 interceptions.

If there is any time you don’t want to face a ticked off New England team, it’s this week. New England is coming off a controversial loss last Monday night against Carolina. Tight end Rob Gronkowski was held in the endzone by linebacker Luke Keuchly on the final play of the game, a flag was thrown yet was picked up and it was determined there was no foul on the play. This marked the second controversial loss this year at the hands of the officials, with the other being in week 7 against the New York Jets. New England’s offense is improving week by week, and Tom Brady is getting in a groove. Brady’s completion percentage has improved each week since tight end Rob Gronkowski’s return from injury. Last week, Brady completed 72% of his passes last week for 296 yards against one of the league’s best defenses.

Defensively, the Patriots can get after the quarterback, ranking near the top of the league with 32 sacks. They are an opportunistic defense as well with 19 takeaways. The Patriots have a turnover differential of +7 yet last week, Steven Ridley’s fumbling issues continued with a critical fumble in the endzone that ended up costing the Patriots in the long run. The secondary is banged up, as their three top cornerbacks (Talib, Dennard, and Arrington) are all questionable this week.

Weather will definitely be a factor on Sunday night, as it will be cold with swirling winds and a wind chill in the single digits. Ball security will be a factor as the ball will be slippery and passing could be an issue. Brady is more familiar with these conditions, as Manning has played in a dome most of his career. The New England defense has allowed a 78 passer rating against opposing quarterbacks this year. The weather conditions don’t help matters either for Peyton Manning. This is a big game, yet it is somewhat of a sandwich spot for Denver as they faced Kansas City last week and travel to Arrowhead next week. I expect New England to run the ball effectively and use a short passing game to get the win on Sunday night.

Denver Broncos vs, New England Patriots Free NFL Pick: New England +2.5 Under 53
Denver Broncos vs, New England Patriots Game Prediction: Patriots 28 – Broncos 24

 

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About the author: Lou Palumbo

 

Lou Palumbo has been a blogger and sports handicapper for almost 15 years now and is the type of writer/handicapper we look for at TC-Sports-Picks. From a very young age, he's had a passion for sports, numbers, technology and business. This interest has led him to his career working in the sports betting industry, using his skills as an employee & partner at several top sports handicapping firms. He's is also known for his role in creating & managing the forums at Cappersinfo.com, a well known sports betting portal with a popular handicapping forum. He's also developed working computer systems to assist in beating the books, and has generated several winning seasons in every major betting sport. Lou has also developed a keen understanding as to what makes the oddsmakers set a number, what type of plays attract the sharps, and what makes the sports betting public fall for a sucker bet. It's safe to say, he's well in the black in his sports betting career and we're glad that he will be sharing some of that info, and also posting free picks and trends here at Total Choice Sports Picks.

Website: http://www.tc-sports-picks.com

 

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