Free Week 13 NFL Picks: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs

Date and Time: Sunday, December 1st, 2013, 4:25 pm EST on CBS
Game Line: Denver -5.5 (from JustBet)
Over/Under: 48
Sunday NFL analysis: For the second time in three week, the 9-2 DenverBroncos vs Cheifs Broncos take on the 9-2 Kansas City Chiefs in an AFC West battle with major playoff implications. Both teams sit atop the AFC West, yet Denver owns the tiebreak winning their last meeting 27-17.

Denver comes into this matchup blowing a 24 point lead and losing in overtime 34-31 in one of the more memorable game this season. Peyton Manning was ineffective completing only 52.8% of his passes for 150 yards and with 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. It was by far his worst performance this season. Knowshon Moreno had his best game of the season, rushing for 224 yards and 1 touchdown. The Denver offense has been the highest scoring offense this year, averaging 39 points per game. They feature an explosive passing attack with many options for Manning. Demaryius Thomas leads the team in receiving yards with 955, and Wes Welker leads the team in receptions with 65. You can’t forget about Eric Decker (55 rec 797 yds) or Julius Thomas (45 rec 590 yds) either. Thomas missed last Sunday’s game with a knee injury and is questionable for Sunday’s game. The defense has been shaky at times allowing 378 yards per game, yet Von Miller seems to be getting back in the groove. Miller made a big impact last Sunday with 2 sacks, a forced fumble, and a fumble return for a touchdown.

Kansas City also is coming into Sundays contest off a loss. The Chiefs were on the short end of a 41-38 loss at home to San Diego. Not only did they lose a game, but they lost two key pass rushers to injury in Tamba Hali (ankle) and Justin Houston (elbow). Their defense was impacted significantly as they gave up a season high 41 points. By far the most they had given up this season. Houston is listed as doubtful on the injury report, Tamba Hali looks like he will be a go. Looking on the bright side, the Chiefs had their best offensive performance this year against San Diego. Alex Smith was 26 for 38 passing for 294 yards with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception.

In the last meeting between these two, Peyton Manning’s jersey was pretty clean as he wasn’t sacked. It has to be a concern for the Chiefs as they will be without the services of Justin Houston. Tamba Hali will play, yet you have to wonder how effective he will be with the ankle injury. The crowd noise in Arrowhead can be a factor; however without a pass rush Kansas City’s defense is pedestrian at best. In Kansas City’s first 5 home games, they had given up an average of 12.6 points and 304 total yards per game. As soon as Hali and Houston were hurt in the second quarter, San Diego’s offense went off for 38 points while tallying 491 yards of total offense. I don’t see this game being as competitive as the first meeting, as I see Denver rebounding from last week in dominant fashion.

Denver Broncos vs., Kansas City Chiefs Free NFL Pick: Denver -5.5 Over 48
Denver Broncos vs., Kansas City Chiefs Game Prediction: Broncos 38 Kansas City 21


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About the author: Chad Dawkins


Chad A. Dawkins is not only an avid sports betting blogger and writer, but he is also a truly dedicated sports handicapper. As a very passionate sports fanatic since childhood, he’s a spirited sports handicapper of the purest form. He not only picks winners by putting in hours of time on all sports; football, basketball, & baseball handicapping. Chad truely enjoys the daily capping grind. He utilizes his love of numbers, the basic betting trends and other raw data to draw up winners. His daily capping involves combining statistics, betting systems, and public perception. He then ties all of this information with his personal knowledge of the game; which is stemmed from his regular viewing habits. Dawkins uses all the tools available to him to practice different types of situational handicapping and to develop systems. Chad uses all of this to pick winners and find value where the sports betting public doesn’t see it. Recently, Dawkins has been contributing on several top websites. He’s been a long time (5+ year) member and often shares his insights on the forums; whom we would like to thank for recommending Chad to Total Choice Sports Picks. He has a solid understanding of how the daily lines are set by the oddsmakers, what moves the line, influences the public; and just has a solid feel for the betting market in general. For all the said reason, this is a big reason why TC-Sports-Picks is honored to have him as a contribution and future expert.


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