2013 Free Week 12 Thursday NFL Picks: New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons

Date and Time: Thursday, November 21st, 2013, 8:00 pm on NFL Network
Game Line: New Orleans -9 (from JustBet)
Over/Under: 53
Thursday Night NFL Football Game Analysis: Two teams heading in opposite directions meet in the Georgia Dome on -644054673a9a69faThursday night as the 2-8 Atlanta Falcons host the 8-2 New Orleans Saints.

There’s no doubt in anyone’s mind that the Atlanta Falcons have been one of the biggest disappointments this season. Losers of four in a row, the Falcons were embarrassed at Tampa Bay last Sunday. Despite outgaining the Buccaneers in yardage, they turned the ball over three times resulting in a 41–28 loss.

A season ending injury to wide receiver Julio Jones was just the start of a downward spiral that has the Falcons tied for dead last in the NFC South. Steven Jackson and Roddy White have also missed significant time, as the offense has failed to play up to expectations. Atlanta is in the middle of the pack as far as offense is concerned averaging 347.5 yards per game and 21.4 points per game. Their defense hasn’t helped matters either, giving up 249.2 yards passing per game and ranking here the bottom of the league in rushing defense averaging 132.7 yards per game. The Falcons also rank near the bottom of the NFL with a -11 turnover differential.

Since the loss against the New York Jets in week 9 the Saints have gotten back on track winning two straight. One of those victories was against Dallas where they gained an NFL record 40 first downs. The Saints offense has been running the ball effectively as well, gaining 242 yards against Dallas, and 92 against San Francisco, one of the better run defenses is the league. Mark Ingram has really come on as of late, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. Drew Brees has been efficient as usual, completing 68.2% of his passes for 3369 yards with 26 touchdowns and 8 interceptions. Defensive coordinator Rob Ryan has this defense playing a very high level as the defense ranks third in the NFL in total defense and allowing only 18.3 points per game.

When looking at this game you see a Saints team that is clicking on all cylinders and a Falcons team that looks like it has essentially given up on the season. I’m looking at the schedule for New Orleans, and this is actually a really bad spot for the Saints. Last week the Saints were in somewhat of a revenge spot, as the 49ers had knocked him out of the playoffs in 2012 and had beaten them last season. Not to mention they are on a short week and coming off of what was one of the more physical games they’ve played all season. Next week they travel to Seattle, which will be a game of utmost importance as they will be looking to take over position for the #1 seed as the Seahawks are currently at the top. Thursday night’s game might be a look ahead spot, granted it is a divisional game, but it has to be really hard for the Saints to look at the 2-8 Falcons and take them seriously. The Falcons season has gone down the tubes yet no team wants to be embarrassed at home, especially to a division rival. I look for the Saints to get the win here, but don’t be surprised if they come out flat and have to grind out a win.

New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Free NFL Pick: Falcons +9 Under 53
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons Game Prediction: New Orleans 28 – Atlanta 24


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About the author: Chad Dawkins


Chad A. Dawkins is not only an avid sports betting blogger and writer, but he is also a truly dedicated sports handicapper. As a very passionate sports fanatic since childhood, he’s a spirited sports handicapper of the purest form. He not only picks winners by putting in hours of time on all sports; football, basketball, & baseball handicapping. Chad truely enjoys the daily capping grind. He utilizes his love of numbers, the basic betting trends and other raw data to draw up winners. His daily capping involves combining statistics, betting systems, and public perception. He then ties all of this information with his personal knowledge of the game; which is stemmed from his regular viewing habits. Dawkins uses all the tools available to him to practice different types of situational handicapping and to develop systems. Chad uses all of this to pick winners and find value where the sports betting public doesn’t see it. Recently, Dawkins has been contributing on several top websites. He’s been a long time (5+ year) member and often shares his insights on the Cappersinfo.com forums; whom we would like to thank for recommending Chad to Total Choice Sports Picks. He has a solid understanding of how the daily lines are set by the oddsmakers, what moves the line, influences the public; and just has a solid feel for the betting market in general. For all the said reason, this is a big reason why TC-Sports-Picks is honored to have him as a contribution and future expert.


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