2013 Free Week 11 Sunday NFL Picks: Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos

Date and Time: Sunday, November 17th, 2013, 8:30 pm EST on NBC
Game Line: Denver -8.5 (from JustBet)
Over/Under: 49
Sunday NFL analysis: The undefeated Kansas City Chiefs take on the Denver Broncos in what is one of the more anticipated matchups this season.

What a year it has been in Kansas City. Behind new head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Alex Smith it looks like a change of scenery has done them and the Chiefs a lot of good. Although the Chiefs have had one of the easier schedules this year, they are winning impressively. On offense they’re not a team that will put up a lot of points, however they put enough points on the board and their defense takes care of the rest. Alex Smith doesn’t have the most impressive numbers, completing 59.7% of his passes for 1919 yards with nine touchdowns and four interceptions. The offense definitely takes care of the football ranking first in the league with only eight turnovers. Kansas City can get it done on the ground averaging 119 yards per contest, behind running back Jamaal Charles who’s rushed for 725 yards with six touchdowns.

The defense is the main story in Kansas City, giving up only 208 yards through the air and featuring a pass rush that has a league best 36 sacks. They also force turnovers, 23, which is also tops in the league.

While defense has been the story in Kansas City, it’s been the exact opposite in Denver. The Broncos behind quarterback Peyton Manning (3249 yds, 33 TD’s) possess one of the most potent offenses in recent memory, averaging 41.2 points per contest. The addition of wide receiver Wes Welker (53 rec, 576 yds) has been paying dividends this year, not to mention the emergence of tight and Julius Thomas (42 rec, 547 yds).Running back Knowshon Moreno has had a resurgent season, with 521 rushing yards and 336 receiving yards.

The defense has been one of the bigger concerns this year surrendering 287.9 yards through the air which ranks near the bottom of the league. They are giving up 87 yards on the ground per game, however that can be deceiving due to their opponents abandoning the run because of large score deficits.

The Denver offense will certainly have their hands full on Sunday night, as this will be the best pass rush they have faced to all season. I would expect to see Kansas City run a ball control offense and to keep their defense fresh and Peyton Manning off the field. Manning has been nursing a sore ankle the past few weeks and was nicked up last weekend’s contest against San Diego. Kansas City is coming off a bye and in Andy Reid’s career his teams are 13-1 in those contests. Ultimately Denver has too many weapons, and this will by far be the best offense Kansas City has encountered. However, given the extra time to prepare, expect the Chiefs to give the Broncos all they can handle.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Free NFL Pick: Kansas City +8.5 Under 49
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Denver Broncos Game Prediction: Broncos 27 Chiefs 21


About the author: Chad Dawkins


Chad A. Dawkins is not only an avid sports betting blogger and writer, but he is also a truly dedicated sports handicapper. As a very passionate sports fanatic since childhood, he’s a spirited sports handicapper of the purest form. He not only picks winners by putting in hours of time on all sports; football, basketball, & baseball handicapping. Chad truely enjoys the daily capping grind. He utilizes his love of numbers, the basic betting trends and other raw data to draw up winners. His daily capping involves combining statistics, betting systems, and public perception. He then ties all of this information with his personal knowledge of the game; which is stemmed from his regular viewing habits. Dawkins uses all the tools available to him to practice different types of situational handicapping and to develop systems. Chad uses all of this to pick winners and find value where the sports betting public doesn’t see it. Recently, Dawkins has been contributing on several top websites. He’s been a long time (5+ year) member and often shares his insights on the Cappersinfo.com forums; whom we would like to thank for recommending Chad to Total Choice Sports Picks. He has a solid understanding of how the daily lines are set by the oddsmakers, what moves the line, influences the public; and just has a solid feel for the betting market in general. For all the said reason, this is a big reason why TC-Sports-Picks is honored to have him as a contribution and future expert.


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