2013-14 Free NFL Wildcard Picks for Saturday: Chiefs at Colts

2013 AFC Wildcard Picks2013 AFC Wildcard Saturday Picks
Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts

Date: Saturday, January 4th, 2014
and Time: 4:35 pm EST on NBC
Game Line: Kansas City -1 (from BetOWI)
Over/Under: 46
Saturday Free AFC Wildcard Picks: For the second time this year, the Kansas City Chiefs will face the Indianapolis Colts. This time however, the stakes are significantly higher as they meet in the first matchup of wildcard weekend.

Many of the so-called experts predicted the Colts would not win more than eight games this year due to their weak schedule. Well, they didn’t win eight; they won eleven, and are going to the playoffs for the second year in the Andrew Luck era. The Colts come into this matchup winners of three in a row. After the loss of Reggie Wayne, the Colts struggled by going 3-3 in November and mid-December. They have since reinvented themselves, and are starting to really hit their stride. Andrew Luck leads the offense completing 60% of his passes for 3830 yards. T.Y. Hilton has stepped up in Wayne’s absence, and has taken the role as Luck’s go-to guy with 1086 yards and 5 touchdowns receiving this year. While some would say the Trent Richardson trade was a bust, Donald Brown has taken the lead role averaging 5.3 yards per carry. After a disappointing rookie campaign, tight end Coby Fleenor has emerged as one of Andrew Luck’s more reliable targets with 608 yards and 4 touchdowns while averaging 11.7 yards per catch. Defensively the Colts are ranked 21st overall (357 ypg), and have struggled to stop the run, allowing 125.1 yards on the ground per game.

Kansas City started the season winning their first 9 games and had a lot of people talking. The Chiefs didn’t fare too well in the second half of the season, losing five of their last seven games. Since the  41-38 loss at home to San Diego, the Chiefs have not been the same. That was the game they lost two key pass rushers to injury in Tamba Hali (ankle) and Justin Houston (elbow). Kansas City did rest most of their starters in last Sunday’s contest, so they should be well rested. Alex Smith leads the Kansas City offense with 3313 yards passing with 23 touchdowns and 7 interceptions. Their backfield is led by one of the most electrifying players in the game in Jamal Charles. Charles has 1287 yards rushing, and 693 yards receiving on the year with 19 touchdowns this year. Dwayne Bowe leads the wide receivers with 57 receptions for 673 yards and 5 touchdowns. At mid-season, the Kansas City defense was receiving a lot of praise, yet in the second half of the season they have struggled. The defense ranks 24th in total defense, allowing 367 yards per game. They Chiefs have a turnover differential of +18, which ranks at the top of the league.

In the last meeting in week 13, the Chiefs had 4 turnovers in a 23-7 loss at Arrowhead. I don’t envision that happening again, but I can’t help but look at the momentum Indianapolis has. It’s also alarming to see how Kansas City has been in the last seven games. In the two games they won out of those seven, those wins came against Washington (3-13) and Oakland (4-12), not exactly impressive. I have to go with the home team here. Indianapolis has had the tougher schedule; they have more quality wins against the likes of Seattle, San Francisco, and Denver. This Colts team was in the playoffs last year and lost to the eventual Super Bowl champion. I think they move on to the divisional round this time, as they are just playing better all around football. Kansas City’s 9-0 start is irrelevant now, because it’s not how you start, its how you finish.

Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts Free NFL Pick: Indianapolis +1 & Under 46
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Indianapolis Colts Game Prediction: Indianapolis 24 Kansas City 20

 

About the author: Chad Dawkins

 

Chad A. Dawkins is not only an avid sports betting blogger and writer, but he is also a truly dedicated sports handicapper. As a very passionate sports fanatic since childhood, he’s a spirited sports handicapper of the purest form. He not only picks winners by putting in hours of time on all sports; football, basketball, & baseball handicapping. Chad truely enjoys the daily capping grind. He utilizes his love of numbers, the basic betting trends and other raw data to draw up winners. His daily capping involves combining statistics, betting systems, and public perception. He then ties all of this information with his personal knowledge of the game; which is stemmed from his regular viewing habits. Dawkins uses all the tools available to him to practice different types of situational handicapping and to develop systems. Chad uses all of this to pick winners and find value where the sports betting public doesn’t see it. Recently, Dawkins has been contributing on several top websites. He’s been a long time (5+ year) member and often shares his insights on the Cappersinfo.com forums; whom we would like to thank for recommending Chad to Total Choice Sports Picks. He has a solid understanding of how the daily lines are set by the oddsmakers, what moves the line, influences the public; and just has a solid feel for the betting market in general. For all the said reason, this is a big reason why TC-Sports-Picks is honored to have him as a contribution and future expert.

 

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