2013 Free Saturday NCAA Football Picks: Army vs Navy

Date and Time: Saturday, November 9th, 2013, 3:00 pm on CBS
Game Line: Navy -12.5 (from JustBet)
Over/Under: 51.5
Saturday NCAA Football analysis: Pride and prestige will be at stake as the 114th Army-Navy game will take place this Saturday at Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia.

Navy has had a pretty respectable season and even in losses they’ve been competitive. They come into Saturday’s game winners of four out of their last five. Their only loss in that span is a 4 point loss at Notre Dame, where they had the lead in the fourth quarter. After Saturday’s matchup, they will face Middle Tennessee in the Bell Helicopter Armed Forces Bowl. The Navy triple option attack currently ranks third in the country averaging 320 yards rushing per game. They are led by sophomore quarterback Keenan Reynolds, who has rushed 1124 yards with 26 touchdowns averaging 4.5 yards per carry. Reynolds can also pass the ball effectively when needed, completing 55% of his passes for 1028 yards and averaging 9 yards per passing attempt. The Navy offense as a whole averages 5.89 yards per play and 419 yards per game. Defensively Navy is average. The Midshipmen give up 5.89 yards per play and 401.6 total yards per game, with 188 of those yards on the ground.

Army has had quite the disappointing season at 3-8; they’ve lost four in a row and are coming off of a 49-42 loss at Hawaii. The Black Knights boast the nation’s 2nd ranked rushing attack, averaging 323.6 yards per game. Their triple option offense is led by junior quarterback Angel Santiago. Santiago has 542 yards passing and 530 yards rushing on the season. The two main backs in the backfield are juniors Terry Baggett (1072 yds 8 TD) and Larry Dixon (672 yds 6 TD). The defense for Army allows an average of 416 yards per game, and allowing an average of 6.58 yards per play. They are solid against the pass, allowing only 214.5 yards per contest.

With all the pride that is at stake in this game, I would give Army a fighting chance in this one. However I take a look at the body of work of both teams, and it’s pretty clear that Navy is the better team by far. Both teams feature the triple option, and you would think that a team that features that style of offense would be good at defending it right? Well, yes and no. Both teams faced Air Force this season, another team that features the same style of attack. Air Force rocked Army 42-28, even when Army won the turnover battle. When the Midshipmen took the field against Air Force, they were the better team, winning 28-10. Granted, they were down at halftime, but pulled away in the second half and statistically were better. Navy not only has way more quality wins (Indiana, Pittsburgh), but as mentioned before they’ve been competitive in losses (against Notre Dame and Toledo). Ok, so you can make a case for Army with the 14 point loss to Stanford, but don’t put a lot of stock into that game. Stanford was traveling east for the first time that year, and was looking ahead to facing Arizona State the next week. Navy is the better team in this one, and are also more balanced on offense. I’ll take the team that has more quality wins, and has been much more competitive this season. Army may make this a game in the first half, but I see Navy pulling away, as Reynolds is just too explosive for the Army defense to handle. Navy has one the last 11 games in this series, and they outcome won’t be any different on Saturday.

Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen Free NCAA FB Pick: Navy -12.5 Over 51.5
Army Black Knights vs. Navy Midshipmen Game Prediction: Navy 38 Army 21

 

 

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About the author: Lou Palumbo

 

Lou Palumbo has been a blogger and sports handicapper for almost 15 years now and is the type of writer/handicapper we look for at TC-Sports-Picks. From a very young age, he's had a passion for sports, numbers, technology and business. This interest has led him to his career working in the sports betting industry, using his skills as an employee & partner at several top sports handicapping firms. He's is also known for his role in creating & managing the forums at Cappersinfo.com, a well known sports betting portal with a popular handicapping forum. He's also developed working computer systems to assist in beating the books, and has generated several winning seasons in every major betting sport. Lou has also developed a keen understanding as to what makes the oddsmakers set a number, what type of plays attract the sharps, and what makes the sports betting public fall for a sucker bet. It's safe to say, he's well in the black in his sports betting career and we're glad that he will be sharing some of that info, and also posting free picks and trends here at Total Choice Sports Picks.

Website: http://www.tc-sports-picks.com

 

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