UCF MascotUCF Knights vs. Louisville Cardinals Free Pick: The Louisville Cardinals might be six wins away from a spot in the National Championship Game. They also might be one loss away from playing in the Capital One Bowl. Their biggest game of the season to date comes Friday night against the UCF Knights, who are hungry for what might be the biggest win on the college football betting lines that the team has ever had.

If UCF is going to pull off this upset, it is going to be as a 10 ½-point underdog. The Knights are definitely the team that has been the closest this year in terms of the NCAA football betting odds that we have seen to Louisville, but that doesn’t mean that they are really worthy in this one.

College Football Week 8 – UCF @ Louisville October 18th, 2013
Game Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
UCF vs. Louisville On TV: ESPN
College Football Betting Odds Courtesy of SportsBetting Sportsbook: Louisville -10.5 (Total: 53)

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We’ll admit that this one looks a little bit fishy. The insinuation here from the oddsmakers is that UCF would be around +4 or so at home, and maybe even just a little bit less. That’s preposterous, and the college football odds really don’t seem to warrant anything here by taking Louisville. Generally, that’s a recipe for a disaster when it comes to betting on the favorite, but we are going to be game for it anyway. Getting in early might be the great equalizer. Either way, we just don’t see how Louisville is going to end up being stuck in a second straight relatively close game.

The defense for the Cardinals is awesome. Sure, the schedule has stunk, but no one has scored more than 13 points against this unit, and the average team is putting up 230 yards per game against this unit. There isn’t another team in the land that ranks in the Top 5 in rush defense, pass defense, total defense, and scoring defense, and though we do admit that UCF is going to be doing better than that when push comes to shove, it isn’t going to make that bit of a difference. Why? Because the Louisville offense is outstanding as well. The Cardinals are averaging over 400 yards per game, and they haven’t had a game this year in which they have outdone their opponents by fewer than 116 yards per game. Four of the five games have featured Louisville outdoing its foes by at least 221 yards per game, and there was even a game against the lowly Florida International Golden Panthers in which the Cards were over 200 yards better both on the ground and in the air than their opposition. It’s just all too much for the Knights to overcome. Many are jumping on the bandwagon after watching the close call against South Carolina and the win against Penn State, but to that, we say that the Nittany Lions could have disaster strike at any moment thanks to their scholarship limitations, and the Gamecocks scored 38 points in the second half without QB Connor Shaw in the fold. This is setting up to be a bad “knight” for UCF.

UCF @ Louisville Free Pick for 10/18/13: Louisville -10.5

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